Recruitment variability of fish stocks in the Barents Sea: Spatial and temporal variation in 0-group fish length of six commercial species during recent decades of warming (1980-2017)

Young-of-the-year (0-group) fish in the Barents Sea have been investigated in an annual joint Norwegian-Russian pelagic trawl survey in autumn, using a standardized procedure since 1980. We use a conceptual framework of `upstream' spawning areas and 'downstream' nursery areas, recorded as 0-group distribution in the Barents Sea, to address spatial (geographical) and temporal (1980-2017) variation in 0-group length. Four boreal species (cod Gadus morhua, haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, herring Clupea harengus, and deepwater redfish Sebastes mentella) tended to have smaller 0-group individuals in the northern and eastern parts of the Barents Sea, with the largest individuals found in the central part where they were also most abundant. We interpret this to reflect slower growth as the lore-runners' of the seasonal cohort of juveniles are transported into colder waters (through lateral mixing). The Arctic species (capelin Mallotus villosus and polar cod Boreogadus saida) showed a different pattern with increasing 0-group length with increasing distance away from the spawning areas, seen most clearly for capelin. The longer juveniles in northern areas are probably older and stemming from early spawning. There was temporal covariation in 0-group length between the six species over the 38-year time series, with highest correlation between cod and haddock. The covariation reflected similar fluctuations in four decadal 'waves', with maxima in 0-group length in the early/mid 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. There was a high degree of spatial consistency in the temporal patterns of variation in 0-group length, with synchronous variations in different geographical areas. There were also increasing linear trends over the time series for cod, haddock, and polar cod, which represented increase of about 20%, 40%, and 15% of the initial length for the three species, respectively. The fluctuations and trends in 0-group length were positively correlated with seawater temperature, which suggests a strong effect of climate variability and warming (by 1.5-2.0 degrees C since 1980) on 0-group length. The clear differences among the species, and the limited fraction of variance explained by temperature, suggest that other factors such as food play additional roles. Zooplankton biomass integrated over the water column had low explanatory power, but this may reflect intrinsic limitations in the data (e.g., depth-integrated, end of season) in providing an adequate representation of feeding conditions, rather than suggesting that food was not important.

Automated summary

This study investigated the spatial and temporal variation of 0-group fish in the Barents Sea. The results showed significant differences in length among different species, with climate variability and warming having a strong impact on 0-group length. Food availability also played a significant role.