Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures. An ensemble of 29 wheat crop models simulates seasonal wheat growth well under locally recommended sowing conditions, but needs improvements to capture the yield response to early sowing, especially under high sowing density.

Automated summary

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have been proven effective in improving simulation accuracy in modelling experiments, but their ability to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities needs further investigation. This study used a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effects of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components in New Zealand. The results showed that the MME performed well under standard sowing conditions, but failed to simulate early sowing and high sowing rates accurately. Improvements are needed in the models to account for tiller competition and early tiller senescence under these conditions.