Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 35, Issue 18, Pages 6075-6100Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0766.1
Keywords
Pattern detection; Climate models; Ensembles; Interdecadal variability; Seasonal cycle
Categories
Funding
- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [DE-AC52-07NA27344]
- Regional and Global Model Analysis Program (RGMA) of the Office of Science at the DOE
- LDRD [18-ERD-054, 21-FS-035]
- NSF [AGS-1753034, AGS-1821437, AGS-1848863]
- NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program [NA20OAR4310445]
- Institute for Basic Sciences (IBS), South Korea [IBS-R028-D1]
- RGMA component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation [IA 1844590]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The study used five climate models to conduct large ensembles and found that despite differences in models, the seasonal cycle changes in T-AC(x, t) in satellite data and models are similar and identifiable. The global-scale fingerprint patterns, distinct from smaller-scale internal variability patterns, are robustly detectable in both observations and models, indicating common forced T-AC(x, t) changes driven by basic physical processes.
Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T-AC(x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T-AC(x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). We address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T-AC(x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3-4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T-AC(x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T-AC(x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available