Scarcity-weighted metal extraction enabled by primary suppliers through global supply chains

Metal shortage and supply risk are two major challenges to the sustainable development of human society. Human socioeconomic activities are significant underlying drivers of metal depletion. Previous studies have quantified metal extraction and scarcity (i.e., from the consumption-based viewpoint). However, the role of primary suppliers in enabling downstream metal extraction and metal scarcity through global supply chains (i.e., from the income-based viewpoint) remains unknown. This study used an environmentally-extended multi -regional input-output model, combined with reserve-side scarcity indicators, to evaluate the scarcity-weighted metal extraction enabled by primary suppliers through global supply chains. We compared the income-based results with results from the production-and consumption-based perspectives and uncovered major primary suppliers, sectors, metals, and trade pairs driving scarcity-weighted metal extraction. Here we show that China, Peru, and Ireland had the highest income-based scarce metal extraction in 2014. Some resource-abundant nations (e.g., Russia and Australia) played a more important role as primary suppliers than direct producers and final consumers. Critical sectors causing significant income-based scarce metal extraction include the Trade , Business services , and Oil in addition to the mining sector. For metals, income-based results are more significant for metals with lower scarce extraction, such as Al, Fe, and Ni. Moreover, Rest of Southeast Asia-China was the most important producer-supplier pair probably due to the Belt and Road Initiative. The results of this study provide more information on metal scarcity for global metal resource management, and the policy implications of the income-based results could complement production-and demand-side measures.

Automated summary

Metal shortage and supply risk are major challenges to sustainable development. This study evaluates scarcity-weighted metal extraction enabled by primary suppliers through global supply chains and identifies China, Peru, and Ireland as countries with highest income-based scarce metal extraction in 2014. Resource-abundant countries play a significant role as primary suppliers, and critical sectors include trade, business services, and oil.