Journal
JOURNAL OF ALZHEIMERS DISEASE
Volume 88, Issue 2, Pages 549-561Publisher
IOS PRESS
DOI: 10.3233/JAD-220256
Keywords
Alzheimer's disease; artificial intelligence; biomarkers; machine learning; proteomics
Categories
Funding
- Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at UFMG
- Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) [U01 AG024904]
- DODADNI [W81XWH-12-2-0012]
- National Institute on Aging
- National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering
- AbbVie
- Alzheimer's Association
- Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation
- Araclon Biotech
- BioClinica, Inc.
- Biogen
- BristolMyers Squibb Company
- CereSpir, Inc.
- Cogstate
- Eisai Inc.
- Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
- Eli Lilly and Company
- EuroImmun
- F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.
- affiliated company Genentech, Inc.
- Fujirebio
- GE Healthcare
- IXICO Ltd.
- Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy Research & Development, LLC.
- Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC.
- Lumosity
- Lundbeck
- Merck Co., Inc.
- Meso Scale Diagnostics, LLC.
- NeuroRx Research
- Neurotrack Technologies
- Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation
- Pfizer Inc.
- Piramal Imaging
- Servier
- Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
- Transition Therapeutics
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research
- CNPq, Brazil
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This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based blood panel to predict the risk of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). By using ADNI data, researchers created a panel composed of 12 plasma proteins and successfully predicted the risk of MCI patients converting to AD dementia within a four-year time frame.
Background: A cheap and minimum-invasive method for early identification of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis is key to disease management and the success of emerging treatments targeting the prodromal phases of the disease. Objective: To develop a machine learning-based blood panel to predict the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia due to AD within a four-year time-to-conversion horizon. Methods: We created over one billion models to predict the probability of conversion from MCI to dementia due to AD and chose the best-performing one. We used Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data of 379 MCI individuals in the baseline visit, from which 176 converted to AD dementia. Results: We developed a machine learning-based panel composed of 12 plasma proteins (ApoB, Calcitonin, C-peptide, CRP, IGFBP-2, Interleukin-3, Interleukin-8, PARC, Serotransferrin, THP, TLSP 1-309, and TN-C), and which yielded an AUC of 0.91, accuracy of 0.91, sensitivity of 0.84, and specificity of 0.98 for predicting the risk of MCI patients converting to dementia due to AD in a horizon of up to four years. Conclusion: The proposed machine learning model was able to accurately predict the risk of MCI patients converting to dementia due to AD in a horizon of up to four years, suggesting that this model could be used as a minimum-invasive tool for clinical decision support. Further studies are needed to better clarify the possible pathophysiological links with the reported proteins.
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