Impact of Warmer Sea Surface Temperature on the Global Pattern of Intense Convection: Insights From a Global Storm Resolving Model

Intense convection (updrafts exceeding 10 m s(-1)) plays an essential role in severe weather and Earth's energy balance. Despite its importance, how the global pattern of intense convection changes in response to warmed climates remains unclear, as simulations from traditional climate models are too coarse to simulate intense convection. Here we use a kilometer-scale global storm resolving model (GSRM) and conduct year-long simulations of a control run, forced by analyzed sea surface temperature (SST), and one with a 4 K increase in SST. Comparisons show that the increased SST enhances the frequency of intense convection globally with large spatial and seasonal variations. Changes in the spatial pattern of intense convection are associated with changes in planetary circulation. Increases in the intense convection frequency do not necessarily reflect increases in convective available potential energy. The GSRM results are also compared with previously published traditional climate model projections.

Automated summary

This study used a global storm resolving model to simulate the changes in the frequency of intense convection under different sea surface temperature conditions. The results showed that increased sea surface temperature globally enhanced the frequency of intense convection, but with significant spatial and seasonal variations. Changes in the spatial pattern of intense convection were associated with changes in planetary circulation.