Journal
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Volume 32, Issue 5, Pages 799-806Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckac101
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- Swedish Research Council for Health, Working life and Welfare (Forte) [2020-00962]
- Swedish Research Council [2019-00198, 2021-04665]
- Sweden's Innovation Agency (Vinnova) [2021-02648]
- Lund University
- Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation [20190470, 20140776]
- Swedish Research Council (EXODIAB) [2009-1039, 2014-03529]
- European Commission [ERC-2015-CoG-681742 NASCENT]
- Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (LUDC-IRC) [15-0067]
- European Research Council [801965]
- Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency [2019-08944]
- Forte [2020-00962] Funding Source: Forte
- Swedish Research Council [2021-04665, 2014-03529] Funding Source: Swedish Research Council
- European Research Council (ERC) [801965] Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC)
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This study investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that the age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease, preventing severe cases.
Background This article investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviours and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March to July 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household. Methods We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96 053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21 804) and confirmed cases (n = 48 984)-to estimate the effects of the policy. Results Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1800-2700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification. Conclusions It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.
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