Journal
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
Volume 263, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2022.115583
Keywords
Wind speed forecasting; Data pre-processing; Optimal benchmark model selection strategy; Multi-objective optimization algorithm
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71671029]
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This paper proposes an innovative wind speed prediction system that integrates data pre-processing technique, benchmark model selection, an advanced optimizer for point forecast, and interval forecast. Experimental results demonstrate that the developed model achieves superior accuracy compared to tested models, providing important guidance for the security and stability of power systems.
Facing the increasing depletion of traditional energy resources and the worsening environmental issues, wind energy sources have been widely considered. As an essential renewable energy resource, wind energy features abundant deposits, extensive distribution, non-pollution, etc. In recent years, wind power generation occupies a non-negligible position in the electric power industry. Stable and reliable power system operation demands accurate wind speed prediction (WSP), but the inherent randomness of wind speed sequences complicates their fluctuations and causes them to be uncontrollable. In this paper, an innovative WSP system is proposed, which combines data pre-processing technique, benchmark model selection, an advanced optimizer for point forecast and interval forecast. Furthermore, this paper theoretically demonstrates that the weights allocated by this optimizer are Pareto optimal solutions. Six interval data from two sites in China are utilized to validate the forecasting performance of our developed model. The experimental results indicate that the developed model can achieve superior accuracy compared to the tested models in all cases for point forecast, and also obtains the forecasting interval with high coverage and low width error, which is an extremely crucial instruction to guarantee the security and stability of the power system.
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