Journal
ENERGY
Volume 251, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123894
Keywords
Wind forecasting; Probabilistic forecasting; Dynamic forecast calibration; Ensemble model output statistics; Wind forecast based on real-time conditions; Numerical weather prediction models
Categories
Funding
- Italian bank foundation Fonda-zione Carige
- Interreg Italia-Francia Marittimo SICOMAR project [D36C17000120006]
- Compagnia di San Paolo [D36C17000120006]
- Interreg Italia-Francia Marittimo SINAPSI Project [I34I200003800 07]
- University of Genoa (UniGE)
- Compagnia San Paolo Foundation
- [D64I18000160007]
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This study proposes a strategy to combine quasi-real time observed wind speed and weather model predictions using Ensemble Model Output Statistics, in order to fill the time gap between consecutive model runs and provide accurate predictions.
All numerical weather prediction models used for the wind industry need to produce their forecasts starting from the main synoptic hours 00, 06,12, and 18 UTC, once the analysis becomes available. The 6h latency time between two consecutive model runs calls for strategies to fill the gap by providing new accurate predictions having, at least, hourly frequency. This is done to accommodate the request of frequent, accurate and fresh information from traders and system regulators to continuously adapt their work strategies. Here, we propose a strategy where quasi-real time observed wind speed and weather model predictions are combined by means of a novel Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) strategy. The success of our strategy is measured by comparisons against observed wind speed from SYNOP stations over Italy in the years 2018 and 2019.(c) 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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