Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 29, Issue 12, Pages 4399-4427Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- NOAA/CPO (CDEP)
- NSF AGS CLD [1035325]
- NOAA/CPO (ESM)
- NASA
- NOAA MAPP Program
- National Science Foundation
- NSF [OCE1026607, OCE1419306]
- Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports Science and Technology (MEXT)
- JSPS KAKENHI [15H01606, 26287110, 26610146]
- MEXT [25287120, 26241003]
- MEXT through Arctic Challenge for Sustainability Program
- Japanese Ministry of Environment through Environment Research and Technology Department Fund [2-1503]
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science [DOE-DESC000511]
- JAMSTEC-IPRC Joint Investigations
- [NSF1357015]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [25287120, 15H01606, 26241003, 26610146, 26287110, 16H01844] Funding Source: KAKEN
- Division Of Ocean Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1356924] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Ocean Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1357015, 1419306, 1419292, 1026607] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere-ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.
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