Journal
JOURNAL OF SPORTS ECONOMICS
Volume 23, Issue 5, Pages 598-623Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/15270025221085715
Keywords
tennis; best-of-N tournaments; game theory
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Funding
- Research Grant of the Center for Distributive Justice at the Institute of Economic Research (SNU)
- Center for National Competitiveness in the Institute of Economic Research of Seoul National University
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This study provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of strategic momentum and psychological momentum in best-of-three contests. The results show that both strategic momentum and psychological momentum play a role in determining the outcomes of these contests.
We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of strategic momentum and psychological momentum in best-of-three contests between players with unequal skills. As a theoretical benchmark, we develop a fully rational model of best-of-three contests and define psychological momentum as systematic deviation from the theoretical equilibrium. An empirical analysis of 66,262 professional tennis matches from 2002 to 2020 shows that our theoretical model closely matches first set outcomes, which is when set-level psychological momentum is absent. Overall, the empirical results show that both strategic momentum and psychological momentum contribute to the outcomes of best-of-three tennis contests.
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