Decarbonising transport in Europe: Trends, goals, policies and passenger car scenarios

The paper has two main goals: to draw a summary picture of the progress made towards transport decarbonisation in Europe, and to identify future developments concerning the 2020-2030 decade. The analysis is based on the 4th and 5th reports prepared by the Member States under the obligation Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) and on the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) for the 2020-2030 decade, paying specific attention to the use of renewables in the transport sector. We find that the Member States rely on two strategies: increasing the production and use of biofuels, especially those produced by advanced materials, and supporting the diffusion of electric vehicles. Performing a scenario analysis capturing the planned policies and goals indicated in the NECPs, we estimate that the biofuel strategy can deliver a GHG reduction of up to 19 MtCO2eq (-3.6%), while the electrification strategy can deliver a GHG reduction up to 45 MtCO2eq (-8.3%). Jointly used, the GHG reduction could reach up to 64 MtCO2eq (-11.9%).

Automated summary

The paper provides a summary of the progress made towards transport decarbonisation in Europe and identifies future developments for the 2020-2030 decade. Member States rely on two strategies: increasing the production and use of biofuels and supporting the diffusion of electric vehicles. The analysis estimates that a combination of these strategies could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.