Policing in a Post-Conflict State: Evidence from Uganda

How do governments in post-conflict settings provide for policing within their countries? I argue that leaders respond to both electoral concerns and security threats in shaping the geographic provision of policing infrastructure. Focusing on Uganda, I contend that the territorial expansion of policing has followed a distinct political logic. First, I use panel data on police infrastructure to demonstrate increased construction in counties with previously lower electoral support for the incumbent regime. Additionally, I find that counties with violence are more likely to experience increases in construction, but especially in areas where the incumbent has more support. Finally, I show that (1) proximity to police infrastructure is associated with worse individual perceptions of the police and (2) that increased construction of police infrastructure has large significant effects on reducing voter turnout while increasing vote share for the incumbent president. These findings have important implications for post-conflict reconstruction, stability, and violence.

Automated summary

This study examines how governments in post-conflict settings provide policing within their countries. Using Uganda as a case study, the research finds that leaders consider both electoral concerns and security threats when determining the geographic distribution of policing infrastructure. The study reveals that counties with lower electoral support for the incumbent regime experience increased construction of police infrastructure, particularly in areas where violence is prevalent. Furthermore, the study shows that proximity to police infrastructure leads to negative perceptions of the police, and increased construction of police infrastructure significantly reduces voter turnout while increasing the vote share for the incumbent president.