Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets

In this paper, we use the improved Diebold & Yilmaz method based on TVP-VAR-SV model to analyze dynamic connectedness between energy, precious metal, industrial metal, agriculture and livestock commodity markets. The results show that the energy, industrial metal, and precious metal commodity markets are the information transmitters in commodity markets, and the agriculture and livestock commodity markets play the roles of information receivers. Furthermore, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS model to study the influence of geopolitical risk on the dynamic connectedness between five commodity markets. We find that geopolitical risk, especially geopolitical act risk, significantly affects the overall connectedness of commodity markets. And more notably, the impacts on the net spillover of various commodity markets are different. Geopolitical risk has positive effects on the net spillover of energy, agriculture and livestock commodity markets, and negative effects on precious metal and industrial metal commodity markets.

Automated summary

In this paper, the improved Diebold & Yilmaz method based on TVP-VAR-SV model is used to analyze the dynamic connectedness between energy, precious metal, industrial metal, agriculture, and livestock commodity markets. The results show that energy, industrial metal, and precious metal commodity markets act as information transmitters while agriculture and livestock commodity markets are information receivers. Furthermore, the study finds that geopolitical risk, especially geopolitical act risk, significantly affects the overall connectedness of commodity markets, with different impacts on the net spillover of various commodity markets.