Journal
NPJ PRECISION ONCOLOGY
Volume 6, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41698-022-00280-w
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute (NIH/NCI) [P30 CA008748, P50-CA92629]
- Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers
- Cancer Research UK [C1298/A8362]
- Wellcome Trust [214388]
- Royal Marsden Biomedical Research Centre
- Whitney-Wood Scholarship from the Royal College of Physicians
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust
- Institute of Cancer Research
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Lectureship
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The study proposes using polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to determine high-risk subgroups for cancer screening. However, these PRSs only predict cancer incidence and do not address the issue of overdiagnosis. The authors develop a net-benefit framework to evaluate screening strategies, and find that screening based on a marker that predicts cancer mortality rather than incidence can lead to greater net benefits.
Population-based cancer screening programs such as mammography or colonscopy generally directed at all healthy individuals in a given age stratum. It has recently been proposed that cancer screening could be restricted to a high-risk subgroup based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using panels of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). These PRSs were, however, generated to predict cancer incidence rather than cancer mortality and will not necessarily address overdiagnosis, a major problem associated with cancer screening programs. We develop a simple net-benefit framework for evaluating screening approaches that incorporates overdiagnosis. We use this methodology to demonstrate that if a PRS does not differentially discriminate between incident and lethal cancer, restricting screening to a subgroup with high scores will only improve screening outcomes in a small number of scenarios. In contrast, restricting screening to a subgroup defined as high-risk based on a marker that is more strongly predictive of mortality than incidence will often afford greater net benefit than screening all eligible individuals. If PRS-based cancer screening is to be effective, research needs to focus on identifying PRSs associated with cancer mortality, an unchartered and clinically-relevant area of research, with a much higher potential to improve screening outcomes.
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