Modelling the variation of demersal fish distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change

Climate change can affect fish individuals or schools, and consequently the fisheries. Studying future changes of fish distribution and abundance helps the scientific management of fisheries. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) was used to identify the environmental preference profiles of the studied species based on outputs from three Earth system models (ESMs). Changes in ocean conditions in climate change scenarios could be transformed by the model into those in relative abundance and distribution of species. Therefore, the distributional response of 17 demersal fishes to climate change in the Yellow Sea could be projected from 1970 to 2060. Indices of latitudinal centroid (LC) and mean temperature of relative abundance (MTRA) were used to represent the results conducted by model. Results present that 17 demersal fish species in the Yellow Sea show a trend of anti-poleward shift under both low-emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) from 1970 to 2060, with the projected average LC in three ESMs shifting at a rate of -1.17 +/- 4.55 and -2.76 +/- 3.82 km/decade, respectively, which is contrary to the previous projecting studies of fishes suggesting that fishes tend to move toward higher latitudes under increased temperature scenarios. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass could be the major driver resulting in the shift, which shows a potential significance to fishery resources management and marine conservation, and provides a new perspective in fish migration under climate change.

Automated summary

This study used the dynamic bioclimate envelope model to investigate the response of demersal fish species in the Yellow Sea to climate change. The results showed a trend of anti-poleward shift for the 17 species from 1970 to 2060, contradicting previous studies and suggesting the influence of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass on this shift.