Hard coal phase-out and the labour market transition pathways: The case of Poland

We study the labour market transition pathways driven by the coal phase-out in Poland between 1990 and 2050. We apply the concept of branching points to describe the coal transition in the context of structural and labour supply changes and educational upgrading. We show that in the 1990s and 2000s, job opportunities for miners were scarce, as the trajectories of all of these trends deteriorated their labour market prospects. As these trends have reversed in the 2010s, the future employment outlook of the coal phase-out in Poland is more favourable than it was in the past. We find that the employment structures of mining subregions and mines are homogenous, which enables regional approaches to manage the transition. Decarbonisation will lead to a surplus of Polish hard coal mining workers from 2030 on, yet the projected shortages of workers in other sectors will create opportunities for reallocation.

Automated summary

This study investigates the labor market transition pathways during the coal phase-out in Poland from 1990 to 2050. By applying the concept of branching points, the research examines the impact of structural changes, labor supply, and educational upgrading on the coal transition. Findings indicate that job opportunities for miners were scarce in the 1990s and 2000s, but have improved in the 2010s. The employment structures in mining subregions and mines are homogeneous, enabling regional approaches for managing the transition. Although decarbonization will lead to a surplus of coal mining workers in Poland from 2030 onwards, projected shortages in other sectors create opportunities for reallocation.