THE BIOCLIMATE PRESENT AND FUTURE IN THE STATE OF SAO PAULO/BRAZIL: SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS OF HUMAN THERMAL COMFORT

The study evaluated the spatial distribution of human thermal comfort based on a new approach using input data for comfort indices through observed data (2008 to 2016) and for different future climate scenarios in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The indices were calculated and spatialized via Kriging for the entire state, based on daily meteorological data from the National Institute of Meteorology's Automatic Weather Stations in the form of average, maximum and minimum. Future data with monthly outputs of the same meteorological variables were projected for two IPCC scenarios (RCP's 2.6 and 8.5). Based on the projections, the 4 indices were recalculated and spatialized for the near (2050-2080) and distant (2070-2100) future. The results obtained showed the definition of the regions of greater and lesser discomfort due to cold and heat in the state, for the present and future bioclimatic conditions. The new approach was satisfactory and provided a realistic and accurate spatial analysis of the extremes of discomfort due to cold and heat in the study region, which is not possible based on the observation of mean values commonly used in the literature. The contributions of this study promote an alert for the development of public policies for prevention and bioclimatic adaptation, as well as for electricity demand, considering future climate changes and the increased thermal discomfort at local and regional levels.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the spatial distribution of human thermal comfort in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, based on observed data from 2008 to 2016 and different future climate scenarios. The results showed the regions of greater and lesser discomfort due to cold and heat in the state, for present and future bioclimatic conditions. The study's contributions promote the development of public policies for prevention and adaptation to future climate changes, as well as addressing the increased thermal discomfort at local and regional levels.