Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

Terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) service is subject to climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (eCO(2)), however, the relevant processes by which future climate change and eCO(2) affect TEWR are poorly understood. Here, we use the factorial simulation experiments from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project to address this research question. The experiments are based on three dynamic global vegetation models forced with the same climate change scenarios. Results suggest that compared to the preindustrial level, during 2070-2099, (a) TEWR change is highly uncertain, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. (b) Climate change will dominate the pattern of future TEWR change compared with eCO(2). (c) Precipitation and runoff change will dominate the future TEWR change in various regions, and the direct role of evapotranspiration (ET) on TEWR will be relatively small. (d) eCO(2) will mainly affect vegetation dynamics in energy-limited regions to affect the runoff, and consequently affecting TEWR change. (e) eCO(2) will decrease ET and increase the runoff, resulting in a slight TWER change. These findings improve the understanding of the responses of TEWR to future climate change and eCO(2).

Automated summary

The water retention service of terrestrial ecosystems is influenced by climate change and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. However, the specific processes involved are not well understood. This study finds that climate change will have a greater impact than carbon dioxide concentration on future water retention, with precipitation and runoff changes playing a dominant role.