Does Climate Change Affect Rapeseed Production in Exporting and Importing Countries? Evidence from Market Dynamics Syntheses

Globally, non-cereal crops such as vegetable oils and their associated products will surpass cereals in demand by 2050, according to the World Bank (WB). Despite being considered an energy-efficient food crop, the production and supply capability of rapeseed is mostly influenced by climate conditions. Aiming in this context, the study explored how temperature and rainfall patterns influence rapeseed production, as well as how rapeseed prices in major trading countries may influence production and consumption patterns in developing countries. To do this, a supply and demand model approach has been employed for major exporting (Canada) and importing countries, i.e., China, the United States (U.S.) along with Bangladesh, a developing nation. The baseline study period was considered from 1991 to 2018, and simulations were performed up to 2040. The findings revealed that the most important effect on rapeseed yield is directly related to changes in temperature, which are positively related to the growing season but negatively related to the maturity stages of rapeseed in all studied countries. Rapeseed exports from Canada are expected to rise by 2040, while imports from China and the U.S. will rise simultaneously. In Canada, the per capita consumption of rapeseed oil is expected to increase from 16 to 24 kg per year between 2019 and 2040. Over the projection period, oil per capita consumption has steadily increased in China, the U.S., and Bangladesh. The relative demand for rapeseed oil is projected to increase by 2060, according to representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Therefore, it is necessary to determine market prices considering the probable climatic effect and increasing market demand for rapeseed to sustain the international market access of trading nations.

Automated summary

According to the World Bank, non-cereal crops such as vegetable oils will surpass cereals in demand by 2050. This study examined the influence of temperature and rainfall patterns on rapeseed production, as well as the impact of rapeseed prices in major trading countries on production and consumption patterns in developing nations. The findings showed that temperature changes have the most significant effect on rapeseed yield, positively impacting the growing season but negatively affecting the maturity stages. It is projected that rapeseed exports from Canada will increase by 2040, while China and the US will see simultaneous increases in imports. The relative demand for rapeseed oil is also expected to continue rising in the coming decades.