Boom and Bust in China's Pig Sector during 2018-2021: Recent Recovery from the ASF Shocks and Longer-Term Sustainability Considerations

China's African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks, which started in 2018, severely damaged the country's pig and sow herds and created serious pork supply shortages. This resulted in high domestic market prices and record amounts of imports in both 2019 and 2020, but also severely impacted its domestic consumers. It casts doubts on whether China's long-standing self-sufficiency strategy, including its recently communicated 95% self-sufficiency target, can be sustained. Recent data, however, suggest that China is experiencing a rapid recovery in pig production, leading to depressed domestic market prices. This study characterizes the recovery process and analyzes the underlying drivers, such as active responses to the ASF outbreaks, a multiple-prong government initiative towards supporting the pig producers, de facto relaxations of newly introduced environmental regulations, large increases in domestic investment, and a reorganization of the pig sector, featuring more scale operations. However, the rapid recovery has also resulted in decreasing prices, economic losses of producers, and dampened export opportunities for China's trade partners. This paper, therefore, also analyzes these unintended consequences and explores supply-side measures that may enable the long-run viability of the self-sufficiency goal in the presence of high dependency on imported feed. Through a model-based numerical simulation analysis, we find that supply-side measures, such as yield improvement, can substantially reduce reliance on import feed but can only increase domestic pork production marginally, while technical efficiency improvement in pork production has the largest potential in boosting domestic pork production.

Automated summary

The outbreaks of African swine fever in China have severely affected the country's pig and sow herds, resulting in pork supply shortages and high prices. However, recent data indicates a rapid recovery in pig production, leading to decreased domestic market prices. This study analyzes the recovery process and the factors driving it, while also examining the unintended consequences and exploring measures to ensure the long-term viability of China's self-sufficiency goal.