4.6 Article

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna

Journal

SUSTAINABILITY
Volume 14, Issue 8, Pages -

Publisher

MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/su14084760

Keywords

tropical dry forest; biodiversity; bioclimatic modelling; Caribbean

Funding

  1. International Iguana Foundation
  2. Conservation International
  3. Disney Wildlife Conservation Fund
  4. Dutch Iguana Foundation
  5. Mohamed bin Zayed Conservation Fund
  6. Global Environmental Facility
  7. National Environment and Planning Agency
  8. Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International, Government of Jamaica
  9. Beneficia Foundation
  10. Environmental Foundation of Jamaica
  11. Woodland Park Zoo Conservation Fund
  12. University of the West Indies through the Research and Publications Grant
  13. Principal's New Initiative Fund
  14. Mona Campus Research Fellowship Programme
  15. Hope Zoo
  16. Fort Worth Zoo
  17. San Diego Zoo
  18. Audubon Zoo
  19. Miami Metrozoo

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Tropical dry forests, especially those in the insular Caribbean, are highly vulnerable and threatened ecosystems. This study developed a simple model using the Hellshire Hills protected area in Jamaica to project the future abundance of arthropods and lizards based on sensitivities to climate variables. The results showed that both rainfall and temperature had strong impacts on the abundance of these species, and most taxa were projected to decrease in abundance under drier and warmer conditions by the end of the century.
Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and those occurring in the insular Caribbean are particularly vulnerable. Climate change represents a significant threat for the Caribbean region and for small islands like Jamaica. Using the Hellshire Hills protected area in Jamaica, a simple model was developed to project future abundance of arthropods and lizards based on current sensitivities to climate variables derived from rainfall and temperature records. The abundances of 20 modelled taxa were predicted more often by rainfall variables than temperature, but both were found to have strong impacts on arthropod and lizard abundance. Most taxa were projected to decrease in abundance by the end of the century under drier and warmer conditions. Where an increase in abundance was projected under a low emissions scenario, this change was reduced or reversed under a high emissions climate change scenario. The validation process showed that, even for a small population, there was reasonable skill in predicting its annual variability. Results of this study show that this simple model can be used to identify the vulnerability of similar sites to the effects of shifting climate and, by extension, their conservation needs.

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