Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
Volume 19, Issue 6, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19063220
Keywords
Aedes albopictus; ovitrap; regularized logistic regression; ecological niche model; environmental factors; surveillance
Funding
- University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Office for the Environment
- Swiss Confederation as part of Pilot programme Adaptation to climate change
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This study successfully predicts the establishment probability of Aedes albopictus in Switzerland through modeling and selects ten socio-environmental predictors, and produces risk maps. It provides a useful tool for authorities to intervene in higher-risk areas.
Background: In Switzerland, Aedes albopictus is well established in Ticino, south of the Alps, where surveillance and control are implemented. The mosquito has also been observed in Swiss cities north of the Alps. Decision-making tools are urgently needed by the local authorities in order to optimize surveillance and control. Methods: A regularized logistic regression was used to link the long-term dataset of Ae. albopictus occurrence in Ticino with socioenvironmental predictors. The probability of establishment of Ae. albopictus was extrapolated to Switzerland and more finely to the cities of Basel and Zurich. Results: The model performed well, with an AUC of 0.86. Ten socio-environmental predictors were selected as informative, including the road-based distance in minutes of travel by car from the nearest cell established in the previous year. The risk maps showed high suitability for Ae. albopictus establishment in the Central Plateau, the area of Basel, and the lower Rhone Valley in the Canton of Valais. Conclusions: The areas identified as suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment are consistent with the actual current findings of tiger mosquito. Our approach provides a useful tool to prompt authorities' intervention in the areas where there is higher risk of introduction and establishment of Ae. albopictus.
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