Projections of wildfire weather danger in the Canary Islands

Climate change is expected to enhance weather conditions prone to wildfires. Climate regionalized projections for the Canary Islands were performed, using as boundary conditions some of the results provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) initiative, and covering the recent past (1980-2009) and future (2070-2099) periods, under two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5. All fire risk indicators derived from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) are foreseen to worsen by the end of the century. The fire season could increase its length up to 75 days per year, being more noticeable as altitude increases. The extreme risk days (FWI > 60) show an average increase of 58%, reaching 12 days a year, and the area with high risk could increase by 44%. Analyzing the contribution of the different meteorological variables, it is observed that the main parameter in the fire danger index result is the temperature (currently weights 46%). However, in the future, the importance of precipitation will increase, since the rainfall reduction in some areas could reach 41%. The high dependence of the expected changes on land height, and the small size of the islands, demonstrates the necessity of using high-resolution climate regionalizations.

Automated summary

Climate change is expected to worsen weather conditions prone to wildfires in the Canary Islands. A regional climate projection study based on the CMIP5 initiative shows that by the end of the century, all fire risk indicators will increase, with the fire season potentially extending up to 75 days per year. The main parameter influencing the fire danger index is currently temperature, but the significance of precipitation will increase in the future.