The future poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere summer mid-latitude storm tracks stems from ocean coupling

The latitudinal position of mid-latitude storm tracks has large climate impacts affecting the distribution of precipitation, temperature, humidity, and winds over the extratropics. By the end of this century, climate models project a poleward shift of summer mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere. Most previous mechanisms for the poleward shift of the storm tracks focused on the role of atmospheric temperature changes. However, the relative roles of other climate system components in the projected storm tracks' shift have not been examined to date. Here it is shown that thermodynamic ocean coupling is responsible for the future poleward shift of the storm tracks as it overcomes the effect of dynamic ocean coupling to shift the storm tracks equatorward. These results stress the importance of using full-physics ocean models to investigate the future shift of the storm tracks, and of better monitoring ocean coupling processes to improve our preparedness for future climate changes. Mid-latitude storm tracks control most of the weather and climate variability in the extratropics. Here the authors show that, in the Southern Hemisphere, ocean processes will act to shift the summer storm tracks poleward in coming decades.

Automated summary

The latitudinal position of mid-latitude storm tracks has significant climate impacts on the extratropics. This study reveals that in the Southern Hemisphere, the future poleward shift of summer mid-latitude storm tracks is due to the thermodynamic ocean coupling overcoming the effect of dynamic ocean coupling.