4.2 Article

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Review Geochemistry & Geophysics

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Mark P. Baldwin et al.

Summary: Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events characterized by large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere, which are usually caused by the breaking of planetary-scale waves propagating upwards from the troposphere. SSWs result in the breakdown of the polar vortex, along with rapid descent and warming of air in polar latitudes, affecting tropospheric weather and potentially leading to cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia.

REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A Positive Zonal Wind Feedback on Sudden Stratospheric Warming Development Revealed by CESM2 (WACCM6) Reforecasts

Nicholas A. Davis et al.

Summary: The study revealed that successful SSW predictions are generally initialized with a weaker stratospheric jet, while unsuccessful predictions are the opposite. The difference lies in the projection of the residual circulation onto a weakened jet, resulting in a weaker angular momentum flux and more rapid erosion of the jet.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Review Environmental Sciences

Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Gerald A. Meehl et al.

Summary: Initialized climate predictions offer distinct benefits for multiple stakeholders on subseasonal, seasonal, and decadal timescales. While there have been some skilful predictions in various areas, challenges remain, and future efforts should focus on reducing model error, improving communication of forecasts, and enhancing process and mechanistic understanding to increase predictive skill and confidence.

NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Forecasts of Opportunity Opening Windows of Skill, Subseasonal and Beyond

[Anonymous]

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate Model State Estimation Using Variants of EnKF Coupled Data Assimilation

Paul A. Sandery et al.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models

G. T. Diro et al.

WEATHER AND FORECASTING (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

G. Danabasoglu et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The ERA5 global reanalysis

Hans Hersbach et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

Lantao Sun et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Stratospheric drivers of extreme events at the Earth's surface

Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative

Clara Orbe et al.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

Annarita Mariotti et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Global precipitation hindcast quality assessment of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models

Felipe M. de Andrade et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models

Yuna Lim et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A Year-Round Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Sea Ice Prediction Portal

N. E. Wayand et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

Kathy Pegion et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts

Hyemi Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Week 3-4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems

Lei Wang et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty

David M. Lawrence et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6)

A. Gettelman et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Insignificant QBO-MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

Hyemi Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1

William H. Lipscomb et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Evaluation of the subseasonal forecast skill of surface soil moisture in the S2S database

Zhu Hanchen et al.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5

Samuel Levis et al.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

PREDICTING NEAR-TERM CHANGES IN THE EARTH SYSTEM A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

S. G. Yeager et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

MJO Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models

Yuna Lim et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Astronomy & Astrophysics

Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX plus DART

N. M. Pedatella et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales

Lorenzo Zampieri et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Review

Hyemi Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean-sea-ice models (JRA55-do)

Hiroyuki Tsujino et al.

OCEAN MODELLING (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Evaluation of heat wave forecasts seamlessly across subseasonal timescales

Trent W. Ford et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events

Frederic Vitart et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Role of Fire in the Global Land Water Budget during the Twentieth Century due to Changing Ecosystems

Fang Li et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

Ronald Gelaro et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

Christopher J. White et al.

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS (2017)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision

Martin Leutbecher et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

THE SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) PREDICTION PROJECT DATABASE

F. Vitart et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2017)

Review Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A sudden stratospheric warming compendium

Amy H. Butler et al.

EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA (2017)

Article Geochemistry & Geophysics

Subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in BCCAGCM2.2

Jinqing Zuo et al.

DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

Stephen M. Griffies et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Om P. Tripathi et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

A. A. Scaife et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Predictability and Prediction Skill of the MJO in Two Operational Forecasting Systems

Hye-Mi Kim et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

Suranjana Saha et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Astronomy & Astrophysics

First forecast of a sudden stratospheric warming with a coupled whole-atmosphere/ionosphere model IDEA

H. Wang et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Emily E. Riddle et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Level-ice melt ponds in the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE

Elizabeth C. Hunke et al.

OCEAN MODELLING (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A climatology of elevated stratopause events in the whole atmosphere community climate model

A. Chandran et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The CCSM4 Ocean Component

Gokhan Danabasoglu et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2012)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system

Harun A. Rashid et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2011)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

D. P. Dee et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Toward a Physically Based Gravity Wave Source Parameterization in a General Circulation Model

Jadwiga H. Richter et al.

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2010)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction

Linus Magnusson et al.

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Adam A. Scaife et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2008)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

Ensemble forecasting

M. Leutbecher et al.

JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS (2008)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The impact of changing meteorological variables to be assimilated into GCM on ozone simulation with MRI CTM

K Miyazaki et al.

JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN (2005)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

C Johnson et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2005)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A new parametrization of turbulent orographic form drag

ACM Beljaars et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2004)

Review Environmental Sciences

Upper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model

JK Moore et al.

GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES (2004)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century

NA Rayner et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2003)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes

MP Baldwin et al.

SCIENCE (2001)