Seasonal climate drivers of peak NDVI in a series of Arctic peatlands

Changes in plant cover and productivity are important in driving Arctic soil carbon dynamics and sequestration, especially in peatlands. Warming trends in the Arctic are known to have resulted in changes in plant productivity, extent and community composition, but more data are still needed to improve understanding of the complex controls and processes involved. Here we assess plant productivity response to climate variability between 1985 and 2020 by comparing peak growing season NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index data from Landsat 5 and 7), to seasonal average weather data (temperature, precipitation and snow-melt timing) in nine locations containing peatlands in high-and low-Arctic regions in Europe and Canada. We find that spring (correlation 0.36 for peat dominant and 0.39 for mosaic; MLR coefficient 0.20 for peat, 0.29 for mosaic), summer (0.47, 0.42; 0.18, 0.17) and preceding autumn (0.35, 0.25; 0.33, 0.27) temperature are linked to peak growing season NDVI at our sites between 1985 and 2020, whilst spring snow melt timing (0.42, 0.45; 0.25, 0.32) is also important, and growing season water availability is likely site-specific. According to regression trees, a warm preceding autumn (September-October-November) is more important than a warm summer (June-July-August) in predicting the highest peak season productivity in the peat-dominated areas. Mechanisms linked to soil processes may explain the importance of previous-Autumn conditions on productivity. We further find that peak productivity increases in these Arctic peatlands are comparable to those in the surrounding non-peatland-dominant vegetation. Increased productivity in and around Arctic peatlands suggests a potential to increased soil carbon sequestration with future warming, but further work is needed to test whether this is evident in observations of recent peat accumulation and extent.

Automated summary

Changes in plant cover and productivity play a crucial role in driving soil carbon dynamics and sequestration in Arctic peatlands. This study investigates the relationship between plant productivity and climate variability from 1985 to 2020, finding that temperature, precipitation, snow-melt timing, and water availability are linked to peak growing season vegetation index. The study also highlights the significance of autumn climate conditions on productivity in peat-dominated areas. Furthermore, it suggests that increased productivity in Arctic peatlands has the potential for increased soil carbon sequestration with future warming.