Coulomb stress changes due to the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo Earthquake and expected seismicity rate changes in the surroundings

On May 22nd, 2021, an M(S)7.4 earthquake occurred near the Maduo county of the Qinghai Province, China, within the Bayan Har Block. Seismic activities have been intense in this block, thus whether the Maduo Earthquake will bring subsequent seismic hazards to its surrounding regions raises wide concerns. In this paper, we first calculated the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Maduo Earthquake on nearby faults, and estimated how much these faults are brought closer or further from their next failures based on their stressing rates. Next, we combined the Coulomb failure stress changes with the rate-state fictional law to estimate the seismicity rate in the study region in the next decade. A declustered catalogue before the Maduo Earthquake was adopted to calculate background seismicity rate, and rate-state parameters are constrained by fault slip rates. Our results show that the Maduo Earthquake increases stress accumulations in the northwestern portion of the Qingshuihe fault (0.02 MPa at maximum), the two ends of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault (0.01 MPa at maximum), and the northwestern portion of the Maduo-Gande fault (on average similar to 0.09 MPa), and seismicity rates are expected to increase near these faults. What is especially worth noting is the seismic hazard in the region extending from the eastern end of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault to the Maqin-Maqu seismic gap on the Eastern Kunlun fault, which is calculated to have experienced a maximum stress increase of 0.67 MPa after the Maduo Earthquake. On the other hand, stress accumulations are reduced in the southern end of the Elashan fault, the Eastern Kunlun fault segment to the west of Maduo, and the northwestern portion of the Dari fault. Seismic hazards are expected to be low in these regions. For the study region as a whole, the probability of an M >= 6 earthquake taking place in the next decade is estimated to be 59%, about twice the value calculated for the time period before the Maduo Earthquake.

Automated summary

In this study, the impact of the Maduo earthquake on nearby faults and the seismicity rate in the study region for the next decade were estimated. The results suggest increased stress accumulations and higher seismicity rates in certain areas, while reduced stress accumulations and lower seismic hazards in other areas. The probability of an M>=6 earthquake taking place in the study region in the next decade is estimated to be 59%.