Pandemic lockdown, isolation, and exit policies based on machine learning predictions

The widespread lockdowns imposed in many countries at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic elevated the importance of research on pandemic management when medical solutions such as vaccines are unavailable. We present a framework that combines a standard epidemiological SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) model with an equally standard machine learning classification model for clinical severity risk, defined as an individual's risk of needing intensive care unit (ICU) treatment if infected. Using COVID-19-related data and estimates for France as of spring 2020, we then simulate isolation and exit policies. Our simulations show that policies considering clinical risk predictions could relax isolation restrictions for millions of the lowest risk population months earlier while consistently abiding by ICU capacity restrictions. Exit policies without risk predictions, meanwhile, would considerably exceed ICU capacity or require the isolation of a substantial portion of population for over a year in order to not overwhelm the medical system. Sensitivity analyses further decompose the impact of various elements of our models on the observed effects. Our work indicates that predictive modeling based on machine learning and artificial intelligence could bring significant value to managing pandemics. Such a strategy, however, requires governments to develop policies and invest in infrastructure to operationalize personalized isolation and exit policies based on risk predictions at scale. This includes health data policies to train predictive models and apply them to all residents, as well as policies for targeted resource allocation to maintain strict isolation for high-risk individuals.

Automated summary

This study presents a framework that combines epidemiological and machine learning models to predict the risk of ICU treatment for individuals infected with COVID-19. Simulation results based on French data show that policies considering clinical risk predictions can relax isolation restrictions earlier without overwhelming the ICU capacity.