Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 119, Issue 15, Pages -Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2122274119
Keywords
exponential growth; prediction task; experiment; extrapolation; cognitive bias
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Scientists argue that people's inability to understand exponential growth contributes to the COVID-19 pandemic. They refer to evidence from a classic psychological experiment conducted 45 years prior to the pandemic. However, the experiment's critical flaws were not noticed, highlighting the importance of critically assessing research before considering it as a foundation in a field of study.
Scientists prominently argue that the COVID-19 pandemic stems not least from people's inability to understand exponential growth. They increasingly cite evidence from a classic psychological experiment published some 45 years prior to the first case of COVID-19. Despite-or precisely because of-becoming such a canonical study (more often cited than read), its critical design flaws went completely unnoticed. They are discussed here as a cautionary tale against uncritically enshrining unsound research in the lore of a field of research. In hindsight, this is a unique case study of researchers falling prey to just the cognitive bias they set out to study-undermining an experiment's methodology while, ironically, still supporting its conclusion.
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