Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world's domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.

Automated summary

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to multiple countries in Africa, Europe, and Asia in the past decades. By combining a modeling framework with contemporary records and covariates, the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale was predicted. The results showed that ASF is present in many areas globally, with higher risk in the northern hemisphere. This study provides insights into the potential distribution of ASF beyond its current geographical scope.