The distribution of Athetis lepigone and prediction of its potential distribution based on GARP and MaxEnt

Athetis lepigone (Moschler) is a new agronomic pest which has caused serious damages to summer maize in China. In order to effectively monitor it, it is necessary to carry-out a worldwide investigation on its potential geographical distribution. In this study, we give two ecological niche models, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), to predict the potential geographical distribution of A.lepigone. The results indicate that the suitable areas for A.lepigone are mainly in China (Beijing, Tianjin, central and southern Hebei, northern Jiangsu, Shandong, most of Henan, northern Anhui, central and southern Shanxi, central and southern Shaanxi, small parts of north-west in Hubei, eastern Gansu, parts of Ningxia, western of Xinjiang and Dandong, and Liaoning) and other Asian countries (South Korea, North Korea and Japan). Parts of Europe (south-western Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, parts of Austria, western Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, northern Italy, Denmark, western Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, southern Finland and Sweden) are also highly suitable for A.lepigone. In addition, in the states of the USA including Michigan, New York, Chicago, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana are also favourable for its occurrence although till now no reports about of this species has been recorded. A jackknife test in MaxEnt showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of this pest.