Potential distribution of White Syndrome in scleractinian corals in the eastern tropical Pacific

Coral diseases, such as White Syndrome (WS), are characterized by tissue loss and threaten coral reefs worldwide. In the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), WS is present in Pocillopora species, although no massive mortality events have yet been reported in the region. Nonetheless, understanding the factors that trigger the appearance of WS in these ecosystems under current and future climate conditions and that increase the vulnerability of corals to multiple pathologies is necessary to devise appropriate management actions. From field and literature records of WS in the ETP, we characterized the current and future potential distribution of WS under specific climatic conditions based on habitat suitability with a MaxEnt model. We also evaluated the influence of thermal stress in the presence of WS, considering the temperature anomalies over the study period. In the ETP, the presence of WS in Pocillopora species was mainly determined by maximum sea surface temperature (SST), minimum primary productivity (INTTP), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Under future conditions, WS presence may be widely distributed under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The coral reefs exposed to both high- and low-temperature anomalies in this study were the most affected within the ETP region. Predictions of the future prevalence and distribution of WS, both at present and in the near future, must be considered to develop effective surveillance and monitoring programs to protect coral reefs.

Automated summary

This study assessed the potential distribution of White Syndrome (WS) in Pocillopora species under current and future climate conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific. The presence of WS was mainly influenced by maximum sea surface temperature, minimum primary productivity, and photosynthetically active radiation. WS may be widely distributed in the future under certain socioeconomic scenarios. Coral reefs exposed to high- and low-temperature anomalies were the most affected in the study. Predictions of WS prevalence and distribution are important for effective surveillance and monitoring programs to protect coral reefs.