Journal
JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY LETTERS
Volume 13, Issue 17, Pages 3840-3849Publisher
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/acs.jpclett.2c00469
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Funding
- NIH [GM126189]
- NSF [DMS-2052983, DMS-1761320, IIS-1900473]
- NASA [80NSSC21M0023]
- Michigan Economic Development Corporation
- MSU Foundation
- Pfizer
- Bristol-Myers Squibb [65109]
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The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron variant shows increased infectivity and vaccine escape capability, making it likely to become the next dominant variant and posing a serious threat to existing monoclonal antibodies.
The Omicron variant has three subvariants: BA.1 (B.1.1.529.1), BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2), and BA.3 (B.1.1.529.3). BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1. An important question is whether BA.2 or BA.3 will become a new dominating variant of concern. Currently, no experimental data has been reported about BA.2 and BA.3. We construct a novel algebraic topology-based deep learning model to systematically evaluate BA.2's and BA.3's infectivity, vaccine breakthrough capability, and antibody resistance. Our comparative analysis of all main variants, namely, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3, unveils that BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines. Therefore, we project that Omicron BA.2 is on a path to becoming the next dominant variant. We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing monoclonal antibodies. All key predictions have been nearly perfectly confirmed before the official publication of this work.
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