4.7 Article

Assessing the clinical severity of the Omicron variant in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, using the diagnostic PCR proxy marker of RdRp target delay to distinguish between Omicron and Delta infections - a survival analysis

Journal

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Volume 118, Issue -, Pages 150-154

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.02.051

Keywords

SARS-CoV-2; Omicron variant; clinical severity; South Africa; RdRp target delay

Funding

  1. Western Cape Department of Health
  2. US National Institutes of Health [R01 HD080465, U01 AI069924]
  3. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [1164272, 119327]
  4. United States Agency for International Development [72067418CA00023]
  5. European Union [101045989]
  6. Wellcome Trust [203135/Z/16/Z, 222574]
  7. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-017293]
  8. Minderoo Foundation [INV-017293]
  9. Francis Crick Institute - Wellcome [FC0010218]
  10. Medical Research Council (United Kingdom) [FC0010218]
  11. Cancer Research UK [FC0010218]
  12. Wellcome [222574, 203135]
  13. Medical Research Council of South Africa
  14. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-017293] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

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This study aimed to assess whether the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variant infection reduces the risk of severe disease. Using a proxy marker (RTD), the researchers found that patients without this marker had a lower risk of hospital admission, and complete vaccination provided protection against admission. However, accurately assessing the virulence of immune escape variants remains challenging due to under-ascertainment of reinfections.
Background: At present, it is unclear whether the extent of reduced risk of severe disease seen with SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variant infection is caused by a decrease in variant virulence or by higher levels of population immunity. Methods: RdRp target delay (RTD) in the Seegene Allplex (TM) 2019-nCoV PCR assay is a proxy marker for the Delta variant. The absence of this proxy marker in the transition period was used to identify suspected Omicron infections. Cox regression was performed for the outcome of hospital admission in those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the Seegene Allplex (TM) assay from November 1 to December 14, 2021 in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, in the public sector. Adjustments were made for vaccination status and prior diagnosis of infection. Results: A total of 150 cases with RTD and 1486 cases without RTD were included. Cases without RTD had a lower hazard of admission (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.91). Complete vaccination was protective against admission, with an aHR of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.26-0.77). Conclusion: Omicron has resulted in a lower risk of hospital admission compared with contemporaneous Delta infection, when using the proxy marker of RTD. Under-ascertainment of reinfections with an immune escape variant remains a challenge to accurately assessing variant virulence. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

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