Marketability analysis of green hydrogen production in Denmark: Scale-up effects on grid- connected electrolysis

Green hydrogen is produced through different methods in the lab but only a few technologies are commercialized. Cost reduction is widely expected to compete with the existing carbon-emitting alternatives. This paper compares alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide electrolysis cells as the dominant technologies. Economic analyses with scale-up effects show meaningful differences between PEM and alkaline electrolyzers as relatively settled methods and solid oxide as an immature technology. Monte Carlo simulations on grid-connected electrolysis using the Danish electricity market confirm that both PEM and alkaline electrolyzers can already produce hydrogen with less than 3 euro/Kg if taxes and levies are removed. The price may even drop below 2 euro/Kg after the mass adoption of all three technologies. Furthermore, if electricity is delivered at half prices, the levelized cost of hydrogen falls around 1 euro/Kg. The capabilities for cost reduction after scaling-up are 33%, 34%, and 50% in alkaline, PEM, and solid oxide electrolyzers respectively while they could get intensified with subsidization to 56%, 59%, and 70%. The results indicate that solid oxide electrolyzers can be as economical as alkaline and PEM ones. However, grey hydrogen seems to remain unbeatable without subsidized electricity and/or carbon tax adjustments. (c) 2022 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This paper compares alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide electrolysis cells as dominant technologies, showing that solid oxide electrolyzers can be as economical as alkaline and PEM ones. However, grey hydrogen seems to remain unbeatable.