Rainfall shocks, child mortality, and water infrastructure

I study the effect of rainfall shocks on child mortality at a sub-national level for a global set of developing countries. I establish that negative (positive) shocks to rainfall lead to an increase (drop) in child deaths overall. Low-income countries (LICs) and the group of countries reliant on agriculture are affected the most due to negative rainfall shocks. In LICs, the impact of negative rainfall shocks is mitigated by around 60% in districts located downstream to dams, an effect predominant among less affluent districts; in addition, the effect of rainfall fluctuations is persistent, lasting for up to three years following the shock. Results remain robust to the inclusion of relevant controls, to the consideration of relevant issues such as selective fertility and migration, and various other robustness tests.

Automated summary

The study finds that negative rainfall shocks lead to an increase in child mortality, especially in low-income countries and countries dependent on agriculture. In low-income countries, the impact of negative rainfall shocks is mitigated in districts located downstream to dams, particularly in less affluent areas. Additionally, the effect of rainfall fluctuations persists for up to three years following the shock.