Journal
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
Volume 28, Issue 11, Pages 3711-3727Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16142
Keywords
ecological niche modelling; kelp; MaxEnt models; seaweed
Funding
- University of Melbourne McKenzie Fellowship - ArcticNet [P101 ArcticKelp]
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada Arctic Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Arctic Science, and Aquatic Invasive Species Monitoring and Research Funds
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC)
- Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN) Funds
- Nunavut Marine Region Wildlife Management Board
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada Results Fund
- Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN)
- Australian Research Council [DE1901006192]
- University of Melbourne, as part of the Wiley -The University of Melbourne agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians
- WOA Institution: The University of Melbourne
- Blended DEAL: CAUL [2022]
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The Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, and marine forests formed by seaweeds are predicted to expand northward. However, the expansion of northern habitat cannot compensate for the losses at the southern range edge, resulting in an overall loss of habitat. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin is expected to remain stable, with some exceptions in certain areas.
The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.
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