Stratospheric Moistening After 2000

The significant climate feedback of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) necessitates quantitative estimates of SWV budget changes. Model simulations driven by the newest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis ERA5, satellite observations from the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized data set, Microwave Limb Sounder, and in situ frost point hygrometer observations from Boulder all show substantial and persistent stratospheric moistening after a sharp drop in water vapor at the turn of the millennium. This moistening occurred mainly during 2000-2006 and SWV abundances then remained high over the last decade. We find strong positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and weak negative trends over the South Pole, mainly during austral winter. Moistening of the tropical stratosphere after 2000 occurred during late boreal winter/spring, reached values of similar to 0.2 ppm/decade, was well correlated with a warming of the cold point tropopause by similar to 0.4 K/decade and can only be partially attributed to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and volcanic eruptions.

Automated summary

The stratospheric water vapor (SWV) has been continuously moistening after a sharp drop in the early 2000s, with positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and weak negative trends over the South Pole. The moistening in the tropics is closely correlated with the warming of the cold point tropopause and can only be partially attributed to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and volcanic eruptions.