Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901-2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s-1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.

Automated summary

This study explores the temporal changes of predictability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a modern forecasting system. The results reveal distinct periods of enhanced and reduced predictability, primarily driven by multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO.