Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 49, Issue 6, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL097427
Keywords
global warming; global storm surge; global ocean wave; future projection; tropical cyclone
Categories
Funding
- JSPS KAKENHI [19K15099, 19H00782]
- JST FOREST Program [JPMJFR205R]
- MEXT Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) [JPMXD0717935498]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [19H00782, 19K15099] Funding Source: KAKEN
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This study provides a consistent estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves, showing that the trend in annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone frequency. Future projections suggest a decrease in tropical cyclone frequencies in the western North Pacific, leading to decreasing trends in annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights.
For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. This study provides the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (-20 cm/century and -200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.
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