The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic viability of distributed photovoltaic systems in Brazil

Electricity consumption in Brazil increases significantly, making feasibility studies to diversify the Brazilian electricity mix with other renewable sources become essential. However, the electricity market continues to be primarily driven by government or regulatory incentives and economic status. With the coronavirus pandemic since the beginning of 2020, the market has been undergoing significant changes that cause uncertainty in consumer investments in grid-connected photovoltaic systems. This article presents an economic feasibility analysis of photovoltaic system installation for the Brazilian residential sector, estimating a cash and term investment and comparing the viability of the investment before the global pandemic (December 2019) with the pandemic scenario (April 2021) for each of the 27 Brazilian capitals. The baseline scenario for economic feasibility analysis calculations considered a power system of 4 kW. The results show that the effects of the pandemic in the electricity market were positive in the feasibility of investing in grid-connected photovoltaic systems. Also, financing the system increases the chances of profitability. The current scenario is possibly the most attractive ever experienced by potential investors. However, this favorable scenario could decline in the coming years due to climatic and governmental factors.

Automated summary

Electricity consumption in Brazil is increasing, highlighting the need for feasibility studies on diversifying the electricity mix with renewable sources. However, the market is influenced by government incentives and economic conditions and has faced uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study analyzes the economic feasibility of photovoltaic system installation in the residential sector in Brazil and compares the investment viability before and during the pandemic.