Whether feed-in tariff can be effectively replaced or not? An integrated analysis of renewable portfolio standards and green certificate trading

Nowdays, both the renewable portfolio standards and the green certificate trading policy have become the critical renewable energy policies for supporting the photovoltaic power generation firms. Whether the above emerging policies can effectively replace the feed-in tariff policy or not has become a key issue for China. To explore this problem, this paper establishes an evolutionary game model to analyze the impact of photovoltaic policies on government and photovoltaic power generation firms, and constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the evolution results according to different scenarios of game strategies and photovoltaic policies. According to the study's evolution and simulation analysis, the following implications can be obtained. (1) The renewable portfolio standards policy has significant advantages over the feed-in tariff policy according to the photovoltaic development, but its incentive measures still need to be promoted to reduce the time lag in the policy response of most photovoltaic firms. (2) The initial willingness of stakeholders and the subsidy price have a significant impact on the trading volume of tradable green certificates, but the social welfare of photovoltaic firms is mainly related to the subsidy price. (3) The total amount of government cash subsidy is smaller than the social effect, is the prerequisite of obtaining the appropriate renewable energy support policy for promoting both the photovoltaic development and the economic growth.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This paper analyzes the impact of photovoltaic policies on the government and photovoltaic firms through an evolutionary game model and a system dynamics model. The renewable portfolio standards policy has advantages over the feed-in tariff policy, but its incentive measures need improvement. Stakeholders' willingness and subsidy price significantly affect the trading volume of tradable green certificates, while the social welfare of photovoltaic firms is mainly related to the subsidy price. The total amount of government cash subsidy is smaller than the social effect, emphasizing the need for appropriate renewable energy support policies for promoting photovoltaic development and economic growth.