Lightning Failure Risk Assessment of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on Modified Dempster-Shafer Theory

Lightning has a certain degree of potential threat to the safe operation of overhead transmission lines. In order to make targeted lightning protection arrangements and reduce the impact of lightning on overhead transmission lines, it is necessary to conduct lightning risk assessments on overhead transmission lines. This paper proposes a lightning failure risk assessment method for overhead transmission lines based on a modified Dempster-Shafer theory. First, analyze the historical lightning failure data of the line, determine the lightning failure impact factors, and use confidence to express the relationship between the lightning failure and the impact factor; then, use entropy weight theory and gray relational theory to calculate the value of mass function, and modify it on this basis; finally, use Dempster-Shafer theory to determine the trust degree and fit this with the calculated lightning trip rate to produce the risk assessment. This paper analyzes the lightning failure data of overhead transmission lines in some areas of Hebei Province. The results show that, compared with the evaluation method of the Dempster-Shafer theory, the accuracy of the evaluation is improved to a certain extent after correcting the mass function value. It can be seen that this method can integrate and comprehensively consider different data and can provide a reference for preventing damage to transmission lines by lightning strike weather.

Automated summary

This paper proposes a lightning failure risk assessment method for overhead transmission lines based on a modified Dempster-Shafer theory. By analyzing historical data, determining influencing factors, calculating mass function values, and utilizing gray relational theory and entropy weight theory, the accuracy of the evaluation is improved after correcting mass function values. The method can comprehensively consider different data and provide reference for preventing damage caused by lightning strikes to transmission lines.