Tail-dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver-response relationships

Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice-versa. Here, 'tail-dependent' follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower-tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper-tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment.

Automated summary

This study presents a general theory on how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver affects tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response. Empirical evidence from giant kelp along the California coastline confirms the theoretical predictions. The study finds that intensity of waves influences synchronous declines in sheltered areas, while calm periods primarily drive synchronised recovery in exposed areas. Evidence of geographies of tail dependence in synchrony contributes to regional population resilience.