Cost-optimal pathways towards net-zero chemicals and plastics based on a circular carbon economy

Without disruptive change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil production of chemicals and plastics will double by 2050. The transition to net-zero GHG emissions requires a concerted strategy for the whole chemical industry due to its integrated supply chains. A cost analysis is needed to determine the required investments and to design carbon-pricing incentives. Here, we present cost-optimal investment pathways for the global production of chemicals and plastics by using a bottom-up process model that captures the complexity of the chemical industry. To accomplish net-zero, capital expenditures need to increase by 36-51 % over the next 30 years. In contrast, the total annualized cost could be similar ( + 4 %) to fossil-based production. Net-zero production and its costs will rely on the availability of renewable electricity and biomass. At the same time, high recycling rates are a key to keeping resource demands low and reducing the sensitivity to high resource prices.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ )

Automated summary

Without disruptive change, greenhouse gas emissions from fossil production of chemicals and plastics will double by 2050. Achieving net-zero emissions requires a coordinated strategy for the entire chemical industry, with a cost analysis and carbon-pricing incentives. We present cost-optimal investment pathways for global chemical and plastics production, showing that achieving net-zero will require increased capital expenditures. However, the total annual cost could be similar to fossil-based production, depending on the availability of renewable electricity and biomass. High recycling rates are also crucial for reducing resource demands and sensitivity to high resource prices.