Extinction and persistence of a stochastic delayed Covid-19 epidemic model

We formulated a Coronavirus (COVID-19) delay epidemic model with random perturbations, consisting of three different classes, namely the susceptible population, the infectious population, and the quarantine population. We studied the proposed problem to derive at least one unique solution in the positive feasweible region of the non-local solution. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the proposed model are established. Our results show that the influence of Brownian motion and noise on the transmission of the epidemic is very large. We use the first-order stochastic Milstein scheme, taking into account the required delay of infected individuals.

Automated summary

In this study, a Coronavirus (COVID-19) delay epidemic model with random perturbations is formulated, and the existence and conditions for extinction or persistence of the model are investigated. The results indicate that Brownian motion and noise have a significant impact on the transmission of the epidemic.