Predictors of Kidney Outcomes of Anti-Glomerular Basement Membrane Disease in a Large Chinese Cohort

Introduction: Anti-glomerular basement membrane (GBM) disease is a rare but the most aggressive form of glomerulonephritis. To dissect the prognostic factors, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical features of a large cohort and compared the clinical features and prognosis during decades. Methods: Data on clinical manifestation, treatment, and prognosis were collected. Cox models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to investigate the predictors for outcomes. The Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test were used to compare kidney and patient survival. Results: A total of 448 patients were enrolled. Patient survival and kidney survival at 1 year was 69.4% and 37.7%, respectively. During the past 3 decades, mortality at 3 months and 1 year significantly dropped from 37.5% and 57.1% in 1991-2000 to 2.8% and 6.9% in 2011-2020 (p < 0.001), respectively; kidney prognosis showed a tendency of improvement as well. Serum creatinine (Scr) on diagnosis (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29) and crescent percentage (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.34-2.24) were independent predictors for end-stage kidney disease. ROC curve showed that the optimal cutoff point of Scr on diagnosis for prediction of dialysis dependency at 1 year was 536.4 mu mol/L (sensitivity 88.3% and specificity 80.8%). Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCAs) positivity (HR, 4.43; 95% CI, 1.72-11.38) was a predictor for mortality. Plasma exchange was associated with a better patient prognosis (HR, 0.40; 95% CI 0.16-0.95). Conclusion: Scr on diagnosis and percentage of crescents were predictors for kidney outcomes. Positive ANCA was a predictor for mortality. Overall patient prognosis of anti-GBM disease was improved during the past 3 decades.

Automated summary

Anti-glomerular basement membrane (GBM) disease is a rare but aggressive form of glomerulonephritis, and the prognosis of patients has improved over the past few decades. Serum creatinine and crescent percentage at diagnosis are predictors for kidney outcomes, while positive antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCAs) are predictors for mortality.