Potential outcomes of multi-variable climate change on water resources in the Santa Basin, Peru

Water resources in the Santa Basin in the Peruvian Andes are increasingly under pressure from climate change and population increase. Impacts of temperature-driven glacier retreat on streamflow are better studied than those of precipitation changes, yet present and future water resources are mostly dependent on precipitation, which is more difficult to predict with climate models. This study combines a broad range of projections from climate models with a hydrological model (WaterWorld), showing a general trend towards an increase in water availability due to precipitation increases over the basin. However, high uncertainties in these projections necessitate basin-wide policies aimed at increased adaptability.