Turkey's road to EU accession: a bridge too far?

Using composite indices that quantify the quality of institutions and democratic functioning, the paper argues that Turkey has always deviated in terms of liberal democracy and civil liberties from the average EU norms. Due to the democratic backsliding of recent years this gap is rapidly widening. These differences constitute one of the two insurmountable fundamental barriers that have always prevented full membership irrespective of all other impediments. The democratic gap barrier is compounded by the sheer size of the economy and the population. Both present an unprecedented challenge to EU's integration capacity with important political repercussions for the Union's institutional functioning. Full membership was never a reasonably realistic and pragmatic goal. Both the EU and Turkey have benefits to reap from maintaining a strong and close relationship founded on a more pragmatic partnership target.

Automated summary

Using composite indices, this paper argues that Turkey has always been different from the EU in terms of liberal democracy and civil liberties, and recent democratic regression has widened the gap further. This, along with the large economy and population, presents a challenge to the EU's integration capacity and institutional functioning. Full membership has never been a realistic goal, and both the EU and Turkey can benefit from a strong and pragmatic partnership.